{"meta":{"config_hash":"b39faa28bb08e7b64d8e3e5472459a28beef558970c1862c7469e77395a7f4f0","code_hash":"a8897be10c6d0ab2da40fd4ab6abffca07e8a4d67047e0fb8d4a627c6fff3c5e","seed":314159265,"date":"2026-10-07","minutes":8.9,"claims":3000,"markets":30799,"tests":94,"workers":16,"true_cost_bps":2.0,"fa_cap":0.2,"oracle_years":2304},"researchers":[{"id":"honest_null","case":1,"name":"Honest, no edge","desc":"Pre-registers one momentum rule (TSMOM-60) and backtests it once, correctly. The market has no edge, so every claim here is pure luck.","market":"null","flaw":"None - luck","claims":300,"runs":18314,"claim_rate":0.0164,"fake":300,"real":0,"marginal":0,"mean_claimed":0.7963,"mean_true":-0.0385,"claimed":[0.72,0.81,0.97,0.88,0.68,0.8,0.7,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.78,1.1,0.67,0.73,0.76,1.04,0.7,0.69,0.91,1.2,0.76,0.75,0.84,1.03,0.8,0.84,1.0,0.76,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.75,0.92,1.1,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.86,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.89,0.76,0.92,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.72,0.89,0.93,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.98,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.7,0.77,0.67,0.77,1.11,1.01,0.77,0.67,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.68,0.69,1.22,0.84,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.73,0.98,0.8,0.7,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.92,0.8,0.67,0.95,0.7,0.86,0.77,0.95,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.99,0.74,0.98,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.68,0.71,1.06,0.94,1.05,0.77,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.69,1.1,0.7,1.18,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.72,1.16,0.71,0.79,0.69,0.79,0.71,0.8,1.21,0.9,1.02,0.75,0.75,0.85,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.89,0.68,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.81,1.12,0.71,0.91,0.71,0.7,0.81,1.36,0.83,0.86,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.88,0.96,1.03,0.72,0.68,0.9,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.72,1.03,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.96,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.97,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.86,0.75,0.69,0.69,1.07,0.67,0.84,0.68,0.71,0.84,0.81,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.68,0.69,1.05,0.72,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.89,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.91,1.0,0.83,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.97,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.79,0.82,0.73,0.67,0.76,0.95,0.8,0.78,0.98,0.77,0.87,0.69,1.1,0.73,0.68,0.95,0.79,0.71,0.84,0.71,0.79,1.04,0.68,0.82,0.69,1.03,0.97,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.84,1.04],"trials":1},{"id":"honest_trend","case":2,"name":"Honest, real edge","desc":"Same rule, same method, in a market with a genuine hidden trend. These claims are mostly REAL, so a rejection here is a false alarm.","market":"trend","flaw":"None - real edge","claims":300,"runs":509,"claim_rate":0.5894,"fake":0,"real":300,"marginal":0,"mean_claimed":1.0198,"mean_true":0.7218,"claimed":[1.13,0.88,1.13,1.39,1.38,0.93,0.85,1.18,1.12,0.86,0.74,0.67,1.15,0.8,1.07,0.67,1.39,1.01,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.77,1.05,0.77,1.11,0.94,0.97,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.91,0.85,1.13,0.87,0.87,0.98,1.17,0.99,1.3,0.75,0.73,0.75,1.4,0.72,0.8,0.86,0.69,0.9,1.47,0.93,1.21,0.93,1.47,0.85,1.14,1.35,1.08,0.68,0.89,0.73,1.15,1.27,1.2,0.81,1.0,1.65,1.75,1.48,1.1,1.43,1.05,0.94,1.07,0.78,0.96,0.67,1.34,1.17,1.13,1.27,1.2,0.94,0.8,0.75,1.19,0.91,1.14,0.71,1.13,1.34,0.7,0.99,0.76,0.95,1.52,0.93,0.75,1.25,1.57,0.9,1.02,1.09,1.25,1.09,0.87,1.19,1.05,0.73,0.93,0.95,1.0,1.05,0.98,1.06,0.92,0.96,0.97,1.95,0.92,1.02,0.77,0.92,0.98,0.77,1.04,1.18,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.89,0.84,1.24,1.33,1.04,1.29,0.93,0.73,1.31,0.85,1.21,1.09,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.77,0.71,1.28,0.86,1.54,1.04,1.09,1.16,0.95,1.12,0.98,1.04,0.75,1.21,0.75,0.75,1.01,1.21,1.06,1.03,0.69,1.08,1.1,1.22,1.09,0.91,0.86,0.75,0.8,0.69,0.9,1.13,0.97,0.83,0.97,0.93,1.14,1.0,0.98,0.72,1.26,1.36,1.39,0.68,0.84,1.5,0.81,1.42,0.75,1.15,1.15,0.76,0.7,0.92,1.17,1.4,0.95,0.92,0.7,0.77,1.15,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.98,1.46,0.73,0.91,1.68,0.93,0.95,1.58,1.26,1.03,1.42,1.45,0.81,1.18,1.08,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.84,0.78,0.95,1.08,1.17,1.62,1.24,1.23,1.4,1.25,1.04,0.94,1.25,0.98,0.69,1.06,1.1,0.99,1.06,0.81,1.28,0.97,1.21,1.27,1.04,1.01,1.03,0.7,1.09,1.33,1.07,0.95,0.84,0.78,0.83,1.54,1.28,0.97,0.7,0.83,1.37,0.95,1.37,0.89,0.74,1.41,1.33,0.89,0.92,0.89,0.77,0.83,0.77,1.8,0.89,1.24,0.93,0.77,1.04,1.22,0.97,1.28,0.99,1.29,0.91,1.11,0.96,0.92,1.47,0.88,0.71,0.73],"trials":1},{"id":"miner_null","case":3,"name":"Parameter miner","desc":"Tries 120 rule variants and reports the best one. No edge exists.","market":"null","flaw":"Selection","claims":300,"runs":1127,"claim_rate":0.2662,"fake":300,"real":0,"marginal":0,"mean_claimed":0.8189,"mean_true":-0.0256,"claimed":[0.95,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.69,0.73,0.88,0.78,0.83,1.18,0.71,0.89,0.76,0.95,1.06,0.83,0.8,0.93,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.77,0.67,1.06,0.8,0.83,0.68,0.76,0.71,0.83,0.9,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.89,0.68,0.68,0.96,0.74,1.14,0.86,0.69,0.88,0.73,0.88,0.75,0.73,1.07,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.79,0.78,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.91,1.25,0.73,0.74,0.8,1.18,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.7,0.86,0.75,0.69,0.89,0.71,0.79,0.9,0.75,0.91,0.92,0.73,1.26,0.89,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.85,0.97,0.84,0.7,0.71,0.96,0.79,1.03,0.69,0.99,1.03,0.78,0.7,0.69,0.88,0.97,0.74,0.67,0.91,1.04,0.69,1.38,0.77,0.84,0.78,0.69,0.84,0.67,1.18,1.05,0.68,1.06,0.97,0.74,0.73,0.67,1.02,0.69,0.69,0.82,0.89,0.99,0.7,0.9,1.14,0.78,0.9,0.87,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.79,0.72,1.07,0.76,0.99,0.92,1.01,0.94,0.75,0.91,0.84,0.68,0.69,0.99,0.7,1.0,0.72,0.69,0.84,1.03,0.73,0.68,0.92,0.84,0.77,0.93,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.94,0.74,0.97,0.77,0.91,0.82,0.76,1.07,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.92,1.09,0.89,1.06,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.67,1.01,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.67,0.95,0.86,0.67,0.87,0.75,0.68,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.92,0.8,0.93,0.77,0.9,1.21,0.69,0.87,0.84,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.87,1.07,0.69,0.68,0.9,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.76,0.78,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.67,0.91,0.86,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.68,0.74,0.86,0.7,0.85,0.75,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.89,0.71,0.87,1.07,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.77,0.73,0.81,1.1,1.16,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.74,1.25,0.72,1.22,0.78,0.67,0.87,0.73,0.72,0.86,0.78,0.91,0.9],"trials":120},{"id":"miner_trend","case":4,"name":"Parameter miner, real edge","desc":"Tries 120 variants in the trending market. Some picks are genuinely good, some just lucky; the oracle decides each one.","market":"trend","flaw":"Selection (on a real edge)","claims":300,"runs":307,"claim_rate":0.9772,"fake":0,"real":300,"marginal":0,"mean_claimed":1.2168,"mean_true":0.6901,"claimed":[1.2,1.28,1.39,1.58,0.88,1.39,1.38,1.25,1.28,0.99,0.81,1.36,1.05,1.71,1.78,1.5,1.07,1.15,1.17,0.75,0.97,0.67,1.07,1.43,0.88,0.91,1.18,1.34,1.47,0.84,1.1,1.33,1.32,1.02,1.43,0.8,1.03,1.78,1.53,0.83,1.08,0.74,1.34,1.26,1.45,1.37,0.82,1.09,1.05,1.91,0.73,0.88,1.25,1.26,1.41,1.41,0.97,1.73,0.83,0.81,0.93,1.09,1.18,1.22,1.1,1.46,0.87,1.25,1.57,0.94,1.79,1.31,1.59,1.01,1.0,1.34,1.12,1.02,1.56,1.31,1.16,1.07,1.92,1.45,1.47,1.33,1.7,0.99,1.23,2.07,1.54,1.25,1.0,1.32,1.18,1.09,1.28,1.38,1.29,0.98,1.15,1.39,1.14,0.93,0.79,1.08,1.09,1.37,1.41,1.35,0.92,1.31,1.33,1.18,1.59,1.09,0.94,1.6,0.79,1.12,1.42,1.12,0.72,1.46,0.93,1.61,1.76,1.28,1.06,0.85,1.48,1.37,0.99,0.97,1.64,1.09,0.97,0.95,0.74,1.55,0.86,0.7,0.88,1.32,1.66,0.86,0.88,1.59,1.35,1.3,0.81,1.2,0.88,1.11,0.95,0.93,1.34,1.53,0.91,0.76,1.37,1.37,0.73,0.89,1.38,1.45,1.58,1.27,1.34,1.29,1.09,0.84,1.04,0.7,1.57,0.68,0.91,0.93,1.51,1.3,1.09,1.75,1.03,0.97,0.76,0.73,1.28,1.58,1.03,0.89,1.54,1.55,1.3,0.99,1.1,1.04,1.07,1.31,1.1,1.26,0.97,1.4,1.16,0.91,1.27,0.98,1.28,1.88,1.4,1.21,1.24,1.3,1.35,1.71,1.64,1.5,0.94,1.46,1.58,0.68,1.14,1.2,1.38,0.92,1.04,1.56,1.55,1.33,0.86,1.34,0.92,1.26,0.92,0.94,1.79,1.64,1.56,1.32,1.43,1.57,1.24,1.18,1.33,0.93,0.94,1.19,1.13,1.52,0.89,0.92,1.4,1.33,1.04,1.78,1.34,0.76,1.47,0.97,1.67,1.69,0.91,1.16,1.09,1.14,1.15,1.25,0.91,1.86,1.3,1.37,1.34,1.1,1.36,0.98,1.14,0.95,0.84,1.83,1.58,0.97,1.29,1.28,1.37,1.18,0.88,1.4,1.54,1.05,1.38,1.63,1.21,1.4,1.39,1.19,1.36,1.82,1.79,0.81,1.14,0.82],"trials":120},{"id":"lookahead","case":5,"name":"Look-ahead bug","desc":"Uses today's closing price to decide a trade filled at today's open: information it could not have had.","market":"null","flaw":"Timing 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normaliser","desc":"Bets on prices returning to the average of the WHOLE sample, future included.","market":"null","flaw":"Data 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